By now, millions of voters believe Obama and the legions of conservative Republicans have very clear who they will vote. It's something you see on the streets, read in the press and is reflected in the statistics, where the Democratic candidate leads in some comfort to McCain. Last heard many comments that predict a Democratic victory as something inevitable, as a win, especially since some European forums. But, gentlemen, the thing is still open, the battle for the presidency continues to raise its temperature and the key to all this mess, undecided voters, not only do not know who to support, but after three debates, their number has grown.
Surveys are another without stopping in the U.S., there are more optimistic for Obama and no less, although African American leading the race. However, despite all the publicity that his success for granted, their differences with McCain number increases exponentially. In fact, the Democrats got this week's level of 50 percent of voters who claimed in telephone consultations that would give their support at the polls. Yet the situation is still better than McCain, sure now changed their results with those of Obama.
Points above, points down, the gap between them is not insurmountable for McCain or Obama definitive. Guilt: A lot of Americans who at this point have not decided what to do with their vote. In my opinion, if after eight years of disastrous Bush, after months of display of virtues of Obama, these people do not know how to vote is because many of them are waiting to make a definitive gesture McCain or Obama show some of the weaknesses Republican accusing him, to trust McCain.
The undecided grow while Obama and McCain falls rises slightly
In the graph, data developed through different media and opinion research agencies in the U.S. (links: Gallup , USA Elections Polls ) are observed several things.
- Obama is the favorite
- McCain had his best thanks to the "Palin effect", which matches when passing Obama in September.
- The economic crisis we punished at first McCain. The "Palin effect" was history and weighed more than the disastrous Republican administration under Bush.
- In recent weeks, McCain has picked up the flight without the aid of Palin based on attacking the credibility of Obama. Their goal: he sowed doubts about the reliability of the Democrat. In my opinion, successfully.
- Obama fails to sustain their levels of support above 50 percent and slows its climb in late September helped by the economic crisis.
- The swing back to summer levels, but with a difference. Now I know the candidates better. A situation I think it has to do with the fear of change. The undecided are wary of McCain ... but not Obama.
As November 4 nears the Republican campaign will increase the negative messages about Obama, you have to harden your comments about McCain, and play the trump card of fear: "Republicans got us where we Want more?". You should try as much as possible to link McCain to Bush, which the Republican has been in charge to avoid so far. That's the key, in my opinion, that easily passed the Democratic electoral trance.
If Obama's speech merely repeats his conciliatory messages, I anticipate that Palin and McCain will be responsible to call the fear in the minds of voters: "Do you really want so much change?"
Politicians insist that the racial aspect is not playing a role, some media refer to him in passing, but it certainly plays a role. But not only is that Obama is African American, also has a touch elitist and seems to think more like a European than an American. Obama supports broader state intervention in the deregulated country. For many in the U.S. that threatens personal freedom above all things and goes against the theory of "self-made man" with their efforts and without external aid or grants.
McCain's face it, does not offer anything new. He is not new. The novelty was Palin, who apparently ran out of gas after being in evidence a few times. The Alaska governor is still green for these battles. McCain, on paper, is doomed to failure. It is surprising he's still alive. Why? For the undecided, fearful of change, afraid of Obama.
From my point of view, McCain is closer to capture these undecided voters than Obama. Like I'm wrong ... maybe not.
