Although all indications are that Brad Pitt and Frank Langella would win the Oscar for best actor in February and his films, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Frost / Nixon, Hollywood sound as the main favorite for the statuettes after nominations the Golden Globe film awards given by criticism in recent weeks point in another direction. The independent film Slumdog Millionaire and actors Sean Penn and Sally Hawkins are the most acclaimed to date.
In order to clear some of the many unknowns and make a statistical estimate, I have reviewed the results of the Oscars in the last decade and have compared them with the awards given by critics that time. The result leaves no doubt, analysts and Hollywood Film Academy follow different paths in most cases (see tables).
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The greater convergence of views between industry and critics are in the categories of best actor and best actress, which makes Sean Penn, whose role in Milk has earned nearly all the awards, becoming one of the bets safer for the statue of the next Oscars.
Something similar could be said of Sally Hawkins, ruled in the main pools of experts to be the protagonist of an independent comedy (Happy-Go-Lucky), but was nominated for best actress of gender in the Golden Globes Despite these results, I can not believe that Hawkins make a well in the Oscar nominations between Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie and Kristin Scott Thomas.
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Another curiosity of this analysis is the force that has entered the race to the Oscars the film Slumdog Millionaire, winner in almost every critics' awards. However, it shows the difference of views with the Academy. Only Washington's critics show a remarkable harmony with the taste of the members of the Academy.
Slumdog Millionaire will fight for a Golden Globe, which will be your litmus test ahead of the Oscars. The tendency is to keep the gates of glory, although we know that statistics are to be broken.
Danny Boyle seems to outdo their rivals in the category of direction, and Heath Ledger continues to lead the pools of the prizes of the Mecca of cinema, although the percentages do not guarantee its success.
Where we found a higher valuation difference is with respect to the secondary acriz. The numbers in this case, play against the leading candidate, Penelope Cruz.
The Spanish is one of the main issues for the figurines but the low level of agreement between critics and Oscar calls into question its real possibilities of achieving the coveted prize.
