Oscar García Muñoz, follow it on other blogs here .
Germany, with its worst crisis since the Second World War
They say that the bags anticipate the movements of the real economy. Of course, in Germany, the anticipation was clear: the DAX-30 reached in mid-July 2007 record high, surpassing the 8,100 points. Thereafter, he began his descent to the 4,600 existing points. The financial storm of subprime mortgages exploded that summer and began to get news about the German banks: they had committed investments in the U.S..
It all started with Commerzbank, which has been merged with Dresdner Bank, with heavy losses in the United States could drag its owner, the insurer Allianz, then the Hypo Real Estate, the largest mortgage bank, which had to be rescued and now, Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, has required an indirect support of the State through the postal service, which has entered its shareholders through a capital increase. Meanwhile, the German government has created a rescue fund and proposes a solution to the Swedish : create banks with assets worth nothing to clean up the parent entities. It would take an accounting trick your account the depreciation of these assets.
In the end, the reflection in the real economy has been inevitable. The German government has launched the largest economic recovery program in its history to offset the effects, but these are serious: GDP falls 2.5% in 2009, a fall that was involved or not in crisis seventies. The industry in general and the automobile, in particular, are low in a country whose main strength is the secondary sector.
Exports will fall 8% this year, another major figure when you consider that a fifth of Germany's GDP comes from exports. A report from Deutsche Bank has black on white the outlook for 2009 European engine: it is the worst crisis since World War II, although he believes that the light at the end of the tunnel will be seen in the second half. An interesting aspect is that discards half deflation as it could occur this summer as a result of falling oil prices, ending the year with inflation at 0.5%. No wonder that the index of the Ifo business confidence is at its lowest in the last 15 years.
Could it be worse? Yes, the economy minister has just resigned and Germany faces a general election in September, with the paralysis in the economy generates uncertainty about the new government to come out.
